The media said free fall.
The market said No Ma'am.
Spring 2026 was one of the most competitive markets I've seen in years. Agents on the ground knew it. The headlines didn't. Here's what the data actually says — and what's coming next.
Spoiler: it didn't fall.
Earlier this year, several outlets ran stories about Oakland's real estate market in "free fall." I'll be charitable and call it lazy reporting. Every agent I know on the ground was watching the opposite — a spring market that was cut-throat, especially in the Hills neighborhoods east of the 580. The only thing falling was the number of homes available.
Here's what actually happened. After a strong fall 2025 with rates dropping and pent-up demand building, we all expected a big spring. It started that way. Then geopolitical uncertainty pushed rates back up — and sellers with 2.9% mortgages suddenly had very good reasons to stay put. Golden handcuffs. Buyers showed up. Sellers didn't. Supply got crushed. Prices went the only direction they could.
Up. Solidly, stubbornly, defiantly up.
The media reports Oakland in aggregate — which includes neighborhoods and price points that behave very differently from the areas I work. Filter to Montclair, Rockridge, Crocker Highlands, Grand Lake — and the story is completely different. The numbers don't lie. The headlines often do. Oakland's median crossed $1M this spring. Not exactly free fall territory.
| City | Median Sold | Price YoY | Sale/List | % Over Ask | Sales Vol. | Vol. YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alameda | $1,450,000 | +1.8% | 115% | 78% | 65 | −30.1% |
| Albany | $1,352,500 | +2.5% | 131% | 86% | 28 | +27.3% |
| Berkeley | $1,632,500 | −5.3%† | 129% | 84% | 174 | +7.4% |
| El Cerrito | $1,146,000 | −5.5% | 122% | 85% | 40 | −23.1% |
| Kensington | $1,750,000 | +29.5% | 128% | 96% | 23 | +9.5% |
| Lafayette | $2,010,000 | −11.5% | 100% | 47% | 73 | −9.9% |
| Moraga | $1,975,000 | −2.2% | 100% | 53% | 34 | +17.2% |
| Oakland | $1,008,000 | +4.5% | 112% | 76% | 537 | +2.9% |
| Rockridge–Temescal–Piedmont Ave | $1,900,000 | +15.5% | 127% | 88% | 42 | −12.5% |
| Crocker–Lakeshore–TrestleGlen | $1,737,500 | +4.2% | 123% | 96% | 24 | +20.0% |
| Montclair | $1,500,000 | +6.8% | 127% | 84% | 87 | +22.5% |
| Oakmore–Glenview–Redwood Hts | $1,200,000 | +8.6% | 125% | 93% | 71 | −12.3% |
| Sequoyah–Chabot–Bayo Vista | $1,330,000 | +14.8% | 110% | 79% | 19 | −9.5% |
| Orinda | $2,020,000 | +1.0% | 101% | 54% | 57 | −26.0% |
| Piedmont | $3,150,000 | +13.5% | 128% | 98% | 43 | +48.3% |
| San Leandro | $889,444 | −1.2% | 105% | 71% | 100 | +9.9% |
† Berkeley's dip reflects a shift in inventory mix, not softening demand — overbidding actually increased YoY. · Oakland = Hills + Central only. East/West Oakland excluded. · Neighborhood rows are Oakland subsets, not additive to city total.
A Reprieve for Exhausted Buyers.
Every June the same thing happens. Graduations. Juneteenth. Pride. Fourth of July. Buyers get distracted. Sellers get nervous. The market exhales. Homes that got ten offers in April start sitting for two weeks and sellers start doing something they haven't done in months — negotiating.
Every year, buyers hear the same advice: wait until September when there's more inventory. And every year, that advice costs them. By September every buyer who "waited" shows up at the same time, inventory collapses, and the window slams shut. The deals are in July. Not September.
The chart below tells the whole story. Watch the orange line — that's 2026, already running 25% below last year. The summer bump is coming. It just won't be as warm as people think.
Months' Supply of Inventory, Inner East Bay single family homes, weekly. Source: BridgeMLS / The Grubb Company. Higher value = slower market. Below 2 months = strong seller's market. We haven't been above 2.2 months in over a year.
3 Secret Pockets for Sellers.
Most sellers list when they feel ready — but the market rewards timing, not readiness. Three windows consistently tilt the odds in a seller's favor: mid-January to early February, when inventory hits its annual floor and hungry, focused buyers have almost nothing to compete over; mid-August, when spring listings have gone stale, back-to-school urgency kicks in, and a fresh home stands out on a tired block; and December, counterintuitive as it sounds — the buyers still looking after the holidays are serious, not browsing, which means no circus, no feeding frenzy, just motivated people and a seller with the nerve to stay in. This isn't a theory. We've closed transactions in all three windows, often above asking, in markets where sellers who waited for "spring" sat for weeks.
Single family home listings by month, Inner East Bay 2023–2025. Source: BridgeMLS / The Grubb Company. The red stars mark the three low-inventory windows where sellers consistently see the strongest relative demand. The red line shows the seasonal trend.
A few stories from the last few months.
Cozy, playfully eclectic, meticulously designed for understated luxury living in the heart of Piedmont. My buyers never had to compete — we got it before it hit the market. That's what hyperlocal and hyperconnected looks like.
A completely updated private resort on 5 acres in Sonoma Wine Country. Pool, guest house, a glen of oaks, total privacy. Past East Bay clients who wanted somewhere to unwind and entertain — their third transaction with me. That's all.
A totally updated 1940 mountain bungalow tucked into the woods on one of Montclair's quietest streets. First-time buyers Dennis and Altana — who also happen to be my neighbors. They're not moving far, but I'd be lying if I said it wasn't a little bittersweet. Congrats, you two. You earned it.
Because there's more to life than square footage.
Payakk Thai · Montclair
I've tried to get in twice. Once without a reservation — turned away at the door. Once with a reservation — turned away because they ran out of food. I am not even remotely mad. That's a restaurant earning its reputation in real time. Make a reservation, show up early, and order everything. Thornhill Rd in Montclair. You'll thank me.
Montclair Beer & Wine Festival
Team Crocker showed up to face paint the kids, handed out drinks, and hosted games for the crowd in our best Pat & Vanna impression. Montclair showing up for itself — which is exactly why this neighborhood is worth living in, farming, and yes, selling in.
As always — if you're thinking about buying, selling, or just want a straight read on what your home is worth right now, my door is open. No pitch, no pressure. Just honest numbers and a good conversation.
Are you or someone you love thinking about buying or selling a home? I promise I'll take good care of them — and you'll get full credit.
Get in Touch
Data reflects single family home sales, March–May 2026, BridgeMLS. Oakland figures include Hills and Central Oakland only. East and West Oakland excluded. For informational purposes only.