Real Estate Decoded — June 2026 | Patrick MacCartee

Spring 2026 was one of the most competitive markets I've seen in years. Agents on the ground knew it. The headlines didn't. Here's what the data actually says — and what's coming next.

The Fabled Free Fall

Earlier this year, several outlets ran stories about Oakland's real estate market in "free fall." I'll be charitable and call it lazy reporting. Every agent I know on the ground was watching the opposite — a spring market that was cut-throat, especially in the Hills neighborhoods east of the 580. The only thing falling was the number of homes available.

Here's what actually happened. After a strong fall 2025 with rates dropping and pent-up demand building, we all expected a big spring. It started that way. Then geopolitical uncertainty pushed rates back up — and sellers with 2.9% mortgages suddenly had very good reasons to stay put. Golden handcuffs. Buyers showed up. Sellers didn't. Supply got crushed, and prices went the only direction they could: up. Solidly, stubbornly, defiantly up.

The Oakland Narrative vs. Reality

The media reports Oakland in aggregate — which includes neighborhoods and price points that behave very differently from the areas I work. Filter to Montclair, Rockridge, Crocker Highlands, and Grand Lake, and the story is completely different. The numbers don't lie; the headlines often do. Oakland's median crossed $1M this spring. Not exactly free-fall territory.

Market Timing: A Reprieve for Exhausted Buyers

Every June the same thing happens. Graduations. Juneteenth. Pride. Fourth of July. Buyers get distracted, sellers get nervous, and the market exhales. Homes that drew ten offers in April start sitting for two weeks, and sellers start doing something they haven't done in months — negotiating.

Every year, buyers hear the same advice: wait until September when there's more inventory. And every year, that advice costs them. By September every buyer who "waited" shows up at the same time, inventory collapses, and the window slams shut. The deals are in July, not September. Watch the data and you'll see 2026 already running about 25% below last year. The summer bump is coming — it just won't be as warm as people think.

Three Secret Pockets for Sellers

Many sellers list when they feel ready — but the market rewards timing, not readiness. Anyone savvy to Bay Area market cycles knows the two best times to sell are the spring and fall markets. What many don't know is that there are three micro-pockets outside those windows that consistently tilt the odds in a seller's favor:

Mid-January to early February — when inventory hits its annual floor and hungry, focused buyers have almost nothing to compete over. Mid-August — when spring listings have gone stale, back-to-school urgency kicks in, and a fresh home stands out on a tired block. And December — counterintuitive as it sounds, the buyers still looking after the holidays are serious, not browsing. No circus, no feeding frenzy, just motivated people and a seller with the nerve to stay in.

This isn't a theory. We've closed transactions in all three windows, often above asking, in markets where sellers who waited for "spring" sat for weeks. If you're thinking of selling, your next pocket is about two months away. Reach out to see if your market and home can take advantage of this strategy.

Recent Sales

224 Mountain Ave — Piedmont. Cozy, playfully eclectic, and meticulously designed for understated luxury living in the heart of Piedmont. My buyers never had to compete — we got it before it hit the market. This is what hyperlocal and hyperconnected looks like.

9359 Ladera Rd — Glen Ellen. A completely updated private resort on five acres in Sonoma wine country — pool, guest house, a glen of oaks, total privacy. Past East Bay clients who wanted somewhere to unwind and entertain; their third transaction with me. That's all.

6465 Pinehaven Rd — Montclair. A totally updated 1940 mountain bungalow tucked into the woods on one of Montclair's most charming streets. First-time buyers Dennis and Altana — who also happen to be my neighbors. They're not moving far, but I'd be lying if I said it wasn't a little bittersweet. Congrats, you two. You earned it.

Around the East Bay

Because there's more to life than square footage.

🔥 Payakk Thai · Montclair. I've tried to get in twice. Once without a reservation — turned away at the door. Once with a reservation — turned away because they ran out of food. I am not even remotely mad. That's a restaurant earning its reputation in real time. Make a reservation, show up early, and order everything. Thornhill Rd in Montclair. You'll thank me.