El Niño is coming. Here's your East Bay home prep checklist.

What NOAA is actually saying

This isn't a "maybe it'll rain" year. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has an El Niño Advisory in effect, and its October update reads less like a forecast and more like a weather bulletin with a raised eyebrow:

Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, October 8, 2026. Next update scheduled November 12, 2026. A strong El Niño tilts the odds toward a wet California winter; it doesn't guarantee one.

Translation for anyone who owns a house in Oakland, Berkeley, Piedmont, Alameda or anywhere with a hill behind it: plan for the wet winter, and be pleasantly surprised if it doesn't show up. The cost of prepping is a Saturday and a few service calls. The cost of not prepping is a soggy crawlspace, a slope that's decided to relocate, and a roofer who can see you "after the holidays."

The 10-point checklist

Check them off as you go — your progress saves on this device. Or print it and stick it on the fridge like it's 1997.

1. 01Roof & guttersClear gutters and downspouts, route downspouts 3–5 feet away from the foundation, and have a roofer check flashing before the first storm — not during it.
2. 02Drainage & gradingSoil should slope away from the house. Clear French drains, culverts, and your nearest street storm drain — one clogged inlet can flood a block faster than you'd believe.
3. 03Slopes & retaining wallsLook for new cracks, bulging or leaning. Clear the weep holes so water can get out from behind the wall. Note any early erosion or slumping and photograph it so you can tell if it's moving.
4. 04Trees & limbsSaturated soil plus heavy limbs is the classic hillside failure. Prune dead wood now, and have an arborist look at any big tree leaning toward the house, the driveway, or the power line.
5. 05Foundation & crawlspaceSeal visible cracks, make sure crawlspace vents aren't blocked by soil or leaves, and test the sump pump before you need it. A pump that hums but doesn't pump is a very expensive hum.
6. 06Sandbags, earlyGet them now, before everyone else has the same idea. Oakland Public Works typically opens free sandbag sites ahead of the wet season — check the city's site for current locations.
7. 07Windows & doorsRe-caulk gaps and refresh weatherstripping. If something leaked last winter, it will leak worse in a big El Niño year — fix it while it's dry enough to fix.
8. 08Erosion controlBare slopes are a liability. Mulch, jute netting, or ground cover keeps the first heavy rain from taking the hillside with it.
9. 09Storm kitFlashlights, batteries, water, a NOAA weather radio, phone power banks — and sign up for PG&E outage alerts. The hills tend to lose power first and get it back last.
10. 10The one-hour walkLoop your whole property with this list in hand. Most winter damage traces back to something that was visible — and fixable — in the fall.

The real bottleneck: getting someone out there

Here's the part no checklist mentions. In a big storm year, every good roofer, arborist and drainage contractor in the East Bay is booked solid by the second atmospheric river. The ones still answering their phones in January are usually still answering for a reason.

After years of prepping homes for market — and fixing what inspections turn up — I keep a short list of the people I'd actually send to my own house. Roofers, gutter crews, arborists, drainage and grading, structural engineers, foundation, HVAC, handymen, gardeners and more. Nearly 100 of them, vetted on real jobs, not star ratings.

That list is my Home Services Guide. It isn't online anywhere — I hand-deliver it, and it's yours for the asking.